Corbin Burnes’s arrival in Arizona marks a significant moment for the Diamondbacks, echoing past high-stakes gambles on pitching talent. The six-year, $210 million contract, complete with a 2026 opt-out, underscores Arizona’s commitment to bolstering their rotation and contending in a fiercely competitive National League. Burnes, a Cy Young Award winner with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021, brings a track record of durability, consistency, and elite performance. His average annual salary of $35 million sets a new benchmark for pitchers this offseason, exceeding the deals secured by other premier free agents like Max Fried and Blake Snell. The Diamondbacks, having shed the financial burden of Madison Bumgarner’s ill-fated contract, are now investing heavily in Burnes, hoping he can solidify their rotation alongside Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez.
Burnes’s journey to Arizona involved a trade from Milwaukee to Baltimore in 2023. He consistently delivered strong performances throughout his career, averaging 31 starts and 189 innings per season since 2021, with a commendable 2.94 ERA. He earned All-Star selections in each of those four years, further cementing his status as a top-tier pitcher. However, lurking beneath the impressive statistics are some concerning trends. Burnes’s strikeout rate, a key indicator of dominance, has declined steadily since his Cy Young season. From a remarkable 35.6% in 2021, it dipped to 23.1% in 2024, barely exceeding the league average. This decline raises questions about his long-term effectiveness and the sustainability of his success in Arizona.
The crux of Burnes’s pitching arsenal, and potentially his vulnerability, lies in his cutter. This pitch, thrown with exceptional frequency, has been both his signature and his source of recent struggles. While remaining an effective offering, the cutter has lost some of its swing-and-miss potency, forcing Burnes to incorporate his slider and curveball more frequently. The Diamondbacks, clearly undeterred by this shift, are wagering that Burnes can regain his strikeout prowess or adapt his approach to maintain his effectiveness. Their investment represents a calculated risk, banking on Burnes’s ability to navigate this evolving phase of his career.
The Diamondbacks’ history is intertwined with high-profile pitching acquisitions, creating both exhilarating triumphs and painful disappointments. The signing of Randy Johnson in 1999, which yielded four consecutive Cy Young Awards and a World Series title, remains a shining example of a successful free-agent gamble. Conversely, the Madison Bumgarner contract stands as a stark reminder of the potential pitfalls of such investments. Burnes’s signing carries the weight of this historical context, placing him squarely in the spotlight as the franchise hopes to replicate the Johnson era rather than relive the Bumgarner debacle.
The ripple effects of Burnes’s arrival extend beyond his individual performance, potentially reshaping the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff. Jordan Montgomery, a recent free-agent signing himself, could be relegated to the bullpen due to Burnes’s acquisition. Montgomery’s struggles in 2024, coupled with his substantial contract, create a complex situation for the Diamondbacks to manage. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles, having received draft-pick compensation for Burnes’s departure, face the challenge of filling the void left by their former ace. They must now explore internal options or venture back into the market to bolster their rotation.
The Diamondbacks, after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2024 following a World Series appearance in 2023, are firmly focused on securing a postseason berth. The acquisition of Corbin Burnes signifies their determination to compete in a crowded National League landscape. The success of this high-stakes gamble hinges on Burnes’s ability to revitalize his strikeout ability or effectively adapt his pitching style. The Diamondbacks’ future, and Burnes’s legacy in Arizona, are now intertwined, with the fate of both resting on the performance of his signature cutter.
