Comprehensive Betting Analysis and Predictions

Staff
By Staff 6 Min Read

UFC Vegas 101, the inaugural event on the 2025 UFC calendar, is set to ignite the Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, January 11th. Streaming exclusively on ESPN+, the preliminary bouts commence at 4:00 p.m. ET, culminating in the main card’s fireworks at 7:00 p.m. ET. Headlining this action-packed night is a highly anticipated strawweight rematch between the sixth-ranked Mackenzie Dern and the eighth-ranked Amanda Ribas, a bout brimming with both personal and professional stakes.

The Dern-Ribas rematch stems from their initial encounter in 2019, where Ribas secured a decisive victory. This time around, Dern, a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner, enters the octagon with a 14-5 professional record, aiming to avenge her previous loss and solidify her position within the strawweight elite. Her UFC journey has been a rollercoaster, marked by both impressive wins and frustrating setbacks. After starting strong with a 5-1 run, her trajectory has been less consistent. Now, following a two-fight losing streak broken by a recent decision win against Loopy Godinez, Dern hopes to build momentum and reignite her ascent in the rankings.

Ribas, no stranger to fluctuating fortunes herself, brings a 13-5 record to the rematch. Ranked No. 8 in the strawweight division and No. 10 in the flyweight division, she boasts a well-rounded skillset that poses a significant threat to Dern. After a promising 4-0 start in the UFC, punctuated by both submissions and decisions, Ribas has also experienced alternating wins and losses, including her most recent defeat against former two-time strawweight champion Rose Namajunas. This rematch represents a crucial opportunity for Ribas to assert her dominance over Dern and climb back toward title contention.

The betting odds, a fascinating narrative in themselves, initially favored Ribas at -171. This has further solidified to -189, highlighting the bookmakers’ confidence in her ability to repeat her previous victory. Dern sits at +164, a significant underdog position, suggesting that she faces an uphill battle. The predicted outcome leans towards a decision victory for Ribas, mirroring the result of their first encounter.

Beyond the main event, UFC Vegas 101 features a stacked card, each bout laden with its own intrigue and implications. The co-main event pits Santiago Ponzinibbio against Carlston Harris in a welterweight clash, with Ponzinibbio, initially the underdog, now emerging as the favorite at -135. Another middleweight showdown features César Almeida, a substantial favorite at -253, facing Abdul Razak Alhassan, who enters as the underdog at +213. Chris Curtis and Roman Kopylov, also middleweights, will square off, with Kopylov significantly favored at -212.

An intriguing battle between undefeated fighters, Christian Rodriguez and Austin Bashi, promises fireworks. Initially the favorite, Rodriguez has seen a dramatic shift in odds, now positioned as the underdog at +230, while Bashi emerges as a strong favorite at -270. Finally, the opening fight of the night sees welterweights Punahele Soriano and Uros Medic clash, with Medic holding a comfortable favorite position at -220. These matchups, each offering unique storylines and potential for upsets, ensure a night of non-stop action.

Prop bets, adding another layer of excitement to the event, present tempting opportunities for seasoned bettors. These include Dern potentially winning via submission at +400, a lucrative possibility for those believing in her grappling prowess. Other intriguing prop bets include Dern winning inside the distance at +300, the fight going the distance at -190, Almeida winning via knockout at +130, Almeida winning in the first round at +300, the Curtis-Kopylov fight going to decision at -165, Bashi winning by decision at -105, and Rodriguez winning by decision at +400. These prop bets cater to diverse betting styles and offer the chance to capitalize on specific predictions.

The UFC Vegas 101 undercard is equally compelling, featuring a diverse range of matchups across various weight classes. Jose Johnson will face Felipe Bunes, Marco Tulio takes on Ihor Potieria, Thiago Moisés battles Trey Ogden, Preston Parsons squares off against Jacobe Smith, Ernesta Kareckaitė clashes with Nicolle Caliari, Magomed Gadzhiyasulov meets Bruno Lopes, Fatima Kline contends with Victoria Dudakova, and Nurullo Aliev confronts Joe Salecki. These preliminary bouts serve as a platform for rising stars and seasoned veterans alike, providing a glimpse into the future of the sport and adding depth to an already exciting card.

In conclusion, UFC Vegas 101 promises a night of electrifying action, headlined by a compelling rematch and supported by a diverse lineup of intriguing matchups. From the main event’s personal and professional stakes to the undercard’s showcase of emerging talent, the event offers something for every fight fan. The shifting betting odds add another layer of intrigue, creating opportunities for shrewd bettors to capitalize on the unpredictable nature of the sport. As the first event of the 2025 UFC calendar, UFC Vegas 101 sets the stage for an exciting year of combat sports, reaffirming the UFC’s position as the premier mixed martial arts organization in the world.

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