The National Taxpayers Union Foundation recently released a report tracking the Trends in U.S. Residents (TUR) in 2011–2021, revealing that the U.S. has been witnessing a decline in residents over the past four decades. This trend, while notable, has not prevented millions of Americans from moving each year. The data, spanning the COVID-19 pandemic and into 2021, highlights a persistent shift in state policies and practices that have far-reaching implications for population dynamics and fiscal crises.
According to the findings, Florida and Texas, both leadingowing states, saw the highest numbers of new residents since the mid-1980s, with Florida adding almost 1.6 million people and Texas climbing to the second place with 1.2 million. This exponential growth underscores the urgency of addressing migration challenges, particularly as infrastructure and economic markets continue to be strained by the pandemic. Two other states saw a significant decline, with New York losing an estimated 1.75 million people and California losing approximately 1.6 million residents. The data ALIGNS states ranked lower in terms of population growth with higher tax rates, and vice versa, suggesting a relationship between economic conditions and demographic trends.
When residents move, they bring with them a significant portion of their income, both from local taxes and public benefits. Over the past decade, nearly 1.6 million people moved to Florida, carrying between $196 billion to $197 billion in adjustedgross income (AGI), while over 1.76 million people left New York, each bringing in less than $111 billion. These figures demonstrate both the benefits and challenges of migration on state revenues. The net AGI data reveal that after accounting for the money that migrates out of a state, Florida boasts higher net incomes, reflecting its economic advantage in serving domestic workers. In contrast, New York, with its broader tax policies, has seen its net AGI decline, driven by lower tax rates and higher outflow.
The migration trends have a recurring theme: states that gain residents also benefit from lower personal income tax rates. For instance, Florida, a low-tax state, gains residents at a 4.1% average individual income tax rate, compared to 8.6% for New York and California. Conversely, states with higher taxes, like California, Texas, and New York, lose residents at a significantly higher rate, explaining why their populations have shrunk. This relationship underscores the importance of understanding how states’ tax policies influence migration patterns.
The humanizing aspect of this content lies not in its raw data but in its ability to resonate with the community. It shows that despite its bleating economic claims, the U.S. is braving these challenges, which are evident in the number of people leaving and entering states. When the content discusses migration, it does so with a sense of urgency, highlighting the emotional weight of the topic and the personal sacrifices that occur on the move.
This survey underscores a broader trend in the U.S. that movements, whether upward or downward, are becoming increasingly common. Addressing these issues requires a nuanced approach, not just a push for more taxes but prioritizing policies that maintain public safety and provide essential services. The findings of the National Taxpayers Union Foundation suggest that holdingTax rates lower might be the key to fostering stability and renewal, but it also points out the need for thoughtful policy reforms that support these goals. Moving forward, states must balance responsiveness to migration needs with sound fiscal responsibility, promoting a more inclusive and sustainable model for economic development and growth.
