The live-service looter shooter genre, once a vibrant and promising landscape, finds itself on the precipice of a significant decline. Games built on this model, characterized by continuous content updates and evolving worlds, are increasingly viewed as high-risk, high-cost ventures. The industry has witnessed a string of high-profile failures, leaving developers and publishers wary of investing in such projects. Anthem, a prime example, consumed vast resources and ultimately contributed to the delay of other anticipated titles from BioWare. Similarly, the disastrous launch of Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League resulted in significant financial losses and potentially stifled the development of other single-player superhero games. These cautionary tales have driven developers like BioWare and Rocksteady back to their roots in single-player experiences, highlighting the perceived instability of the live-service model within the looter shooter genre.
Destiny, a cornerstone of the looter shooter genre and a driving force behind its initial surge in popularity, now faces significant challenges. Despite a decade-long run, declining player interest and revenue, coupled with escalating development costs, have led to substantial layoffs at Bungie, its developer. Sony’s acquisition of Bungie for a staggering $3.6 billion is now under scrutiny, with questions raised about the company’s direction and the departure of key executives. The recent release of The Final Shape expansion, while initially boosting player numbers, was followed by a sharp decline, painting a concerning picture for the game’s future. Instead of doubling down on the live-service model, Bungie appears to be diversifying its portfolio, focusing on a revival of the PvP-focused Marathon franchise and a new MOBA/Smash Bros. hybrid project.
Amidst this turbulence, Warframe stands as a beacon of consistency. While experiencing player fluctuations, the game maintains a remarkably stable average player count comparable to its numbers in 2017. This success, seemingly overlooked by the industry at large, presents a compelling alternative model for sustained engagement and profitability within the looter shooter space. While other games struggle to retain players, Warframe continues to thrive, demonstrating the potential for long-term viability in the genre through a different approach. Its consistent performance raises questions about why the industry hasn’t adopted similar strategies.
Looking ahead, the horizon appears rather barren for new live-service looter shooters. The Division 3, though announced, remains shrouded in uncertainty, particularly given Ubisoft’s current financial challenges. The future of the project, and even the publisher itself, remains unclear, making it difficult to confidently anticipate its eventual release or success. The current landscape suggests a dwindling appetite for new entries in the live-service looter shooter space, with developers and publishers hesitant to commit to the model.
Perhaps the future of the genre lies in a return to its roots, embracing a less demanding, more traditional approach. Borderlands 4, notably rejecting the live-service model, exemplifies this shift. By focusing on expansive, story-driven content delivered through traditional expansions, Borderlands 4 offers a potential alternative to the relentless content treadmill of live-service games. However, the market’s appetite for the Borderlands franchise since the release of Borderlands 3 in 2019 remains to be seen, adding an element of uncertainty to this approach as well.
Even abandoning the “live” aspect doesn’t guarantee success, as demonstrated by Outriders. Despite positive initial reception and a compelling endgame experience, Outriders failed to achieve commercial success, effectively killing the IP. This example highlights the difficulty of launching a new looter shooter, even without the pressures of live-service demands. While other loot-driven genres like ARPGs, exemplified by Diablo 4 and Path of Exile 2, continue to flourish, their success doesn’t necessarily translate to the looter shooter space. These established franchises, belonging to a distinct genre, operate under different mechanics and player expectations, making direct comparisons challenging. The challenges faced by looter shooters appear unique to the genre, even within the broader context of loot-driven games. As the genre contracts, the future of live-service looter shooters remains uncertain, with Warframe serving as a solitary example of long-term success amidst a sea of struggles and abandoned projects.
