The introduction of the four-team College Football Playoff in 2014 marked a significant shift from the previous system where sportswriters selected the National Championship participants. After a decade, the four-team format proved successful but ultimately insufficient, leading to its expansion to twelve teams in 2024. This expansion was widely lauded as a way to ensure all legitimate contenders had a shot at the title, even programs from outside the Power Five conferences, like UCF in their undefeated 2017 season. The increased inclusivity also elevated the importance of regular season games.
The inaugural year of the expanded playoff format, however, presented an immediate challenge, not in the selection of the teams themselves, but in their seeding. The first round saw several lopsided victories, with Indiana, SMU, and Clemson suffering significant defeats, leading some to question the chosen teams and advocate for the inclusion of perceived stronger contenders like Alabama, Miami, or Ole Miss. These critiques highlighted an underlying tension between rewarding a team’s overall record versus prioritizing the perceived talent level of the roster.
The dominant performance of Ohio State against a two-loss Tennessee team in the first round, however, largely silenced these criticisms. The selection committee’s decision to prioritize teams with stronger records and more challenging schedules over those with perceived higher talent but more losses was ultimately validated. This approach incentivizes teams to schedule tougher non-conference opponents, enhancing the overall competitiveness and appeal of the regular season.
The argument for prioritizing “powerhouse” programs with talented rosters, even if they have suffered more losses, overlooks a critical aspect of the expanded playoff format: the increased opportunity for redemption. In the four-team format, one or two losses could be a death knell for a team’s championship aspirations. With twelve teams, however, two or even three losses don’t necessarily preclude a team from contention, especially if those losses occurred against strong opponents. This dynamic encourages teams to embrace a challenging schedule, as it strengthens their resume even in defeat.
Georgia’s 2024 season serves as a prime example of the benefits of a rigorous schedule. Their early victories against Clemson and Georgia Tech, coupled with a strong record in the highly competitive SEC, provided a buffer against a potential loss in the SEC Championship game. This allowed Georgia to secure a bye in the first round of the playoffs, positioning them favorably for another run at the national title. Conversely, SEC rivals like Alabama and Ole Miss, despite their perceived talent, suffered multiple conference losses, weakening their playoff resumes.
The expanded playoff format fundamentally alters the strategic calculus for college football programs. Rather than attempting to curate an easier schedule to preserve their win-loss record, teams aiming for a national championship are now incentivized to play tougher opponents. This not only provides more compelling regular season matchups for fans but also creates a fairer system where consistent performance and challenging schedules are rewarded. The larger playoff field also provides a safety net for programs that may stumble against an inferior opponent but still possess the overall strength to compete for a championship.
While the first round of the 2024 playoffs featured some less competitive games, the overall objective of winnowing the field to the eight strongest teams was achieved. The subsequent matchups promised exciting clashes between some of the best teams in the nation, including unusual pairings like Texas and Arizona State, and a rematch of the regular season thriller between Oregon and Ohio State. While the seeding and playoff structure may require further refinement, the inclusion of Clemson, SMU, Indiana, and Tennessee, despite their first-round exits, ultimately legitimized the selection process and emphasized the value of a strong regular season performance in the era of the expanded College Football Playoff.
