George R.R. Martin, renowned author of the epic fantasy series A Song of Ice and Fire, has ventured into the realm of scientific publishing, co-authoring a peer-reviewed physics paper in the American Journal of Physics. This unexpected foray into academia explores the fictional Wild Cards universe, a shared world created by Martin and Melinda M. Snodgrass, featuring a unique viral pandemic that grants superpowers or deformities to its victims. The paper delves into the statistical distribution of these viral outcomes, creating a mathematical model to explain the seemingly random nature of the Wild Card virus.
The Wild Cards universe, born from a role-playing game campaign, presents an alternate history where an extraterrestrial virus ravages Earth in 1946. This virus, known as the Wild Card, acts as a genetic lottery, with 90% of those infected perishing, 9% developing disfiguring mutations (Jokers), and a fortunate 1% gaining superpowers (Aces). The diverse range of powers and deformities, coupled with the stark statistical distribution, has fueled speculation among fans, prompting the scientific inquiry that led to this paper.
Physicist Ian Tregillis, intrigued by the online discussions surrounding the Wild Card virus, recognized its potential as a pedagogical tool. He proposed using physics principles to develop a model explaining the 90:9:1 distribution, a task initially conceived as a blog post but evolving into a full-fledged scientific paper. The challenge lay in reconciling the seemingly random nature of the virus with the consistent statistical outcomes.
Tregillis’s approach involved embracing the fictional premise while applying scientific rigor. He acknowledged the impossibility of explaining superpowers within the confines of known physics, instead focusing on creating a mathematical framework that could describe the virus’s behavior within the Wild Cards universe. The paper, co-authored with Martin, aimed to demonstrate the versatility of physics concepts by transforming a seemingly intractable problem into a manageable dynamical system, offering students a unique opportunity to apply theoretical tools in a novel context.
The paper grapples with several complexities inherent in the Wild Cards universe, including the existence of "Joker-Aces," individuals possessing both superpowers and deformities, blurring the seemingly distinct categories. Furthermore, it introduces the concept of "cryptos," individuals whose mutations are undetectable, further complicating the statistical distribution. To address these complexities, the authors establish three ground rules: the unknowable number of cryptos, adherence to the 90:9:1 rule for observable outcomes, and the adoption of a multivariate probability distribution to determine viral effects.
The proposed model utilizes two random variables: the severity of transformation, representing the magnitude of the mutation, and a mixing angle to account for Joker-Aces. This mixing angle, visualized as a spectrum, determines whether an individual manifests as an Ace, Joker, or Joker-Ace based on their position along this spectrum. The derived formula, based on Lagrangian mechanics, considers the various evolutionary paths of the system, providing a time-averaged distribution of outcomes.
Tregillis acknowledges that this model’s complexity might be unsuitable for introductory physics students, recommending its application in advanced seminars where students can explore open-ended research questions. It serves as a compelling example of how physics principles can be creatively applied to analyze complex systems, even those existing within fictional universes. The paper’s unique approach combines rigorous scientific methodology with the imaginative backdrop of the Wild Cards world, offering a novel and engaging pedagogical tool for advanced physics students, highlighting the power of scientific thinking in exploring even the most fantastic scenarios.
