*The U.S. Department of Commerce has launched a critical national security investigation into U.S. and European commercial jets, jet engines, and components. This investigation, under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1969 and part 705 of the National Security Industrial Base Regulations, aims to assess the impact of recent unfair trade practices on domestic production and supply chains. The notice is set to be published in the Federal Register on May 13, but the draft is already available.*
The investigation will open to public comment, focusing on the following key areas:
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Demand and Production Projections: The notice will examine the current and projected demand for commercial aircraft, jet engines, and related components for both U.S. and European manufacturers. The Department seeks to understand whether the existing supply chains and major exporters adequately meet this demand.*
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Domestic Production capabilities: The report will assess achievable domestic production levels for commercial flights and jet engines, highlighting any gaps that could affect availability. It will also evaluate the resilience of the domestic market to meet increasing demand.*
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Export Supply Chain Impact: The analysis will explore how the U.S. market relies on foreign supply chains, particularly among nations like China and Japan but notably the U.S. and Europe. The implication is a vulnerability to potential trade disruptions and supply chain failures.*
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U.S. Manufacturing Market Share: The Department will detail U.S. manufacturers’ lead in jet engine production, with four major firms controlling 88% of the market. While GE Aerospace gains 50% of its shares through investments and布局, its reliance on U.S. parts for production poses risks of supply instability.*
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Government Tariffs and Industry Impact: The report will analyze the effect of tariffs such as those imposed by President Trump on U.S. airlines. Data from aviation analytics firm ch-aviation illustrate orders from Delta and United, but the impact on Airbus and Boeing’s production is significant, potentially increasing costs and reducing job opportunities.*
- Political and Economic Implications: The findings will provide insights into the political and economic costs associated with artificial supply control. This includes the potential cost/volume efficiency of arms races and the risks of imposed tariffs impacting the global supply chain.*
The national security investigation is expected to catalyze reconsiderations of global trade policies and supply chain management. It promises to provide critical details for downstream industries but emphasizes the urgent need for strong governments to address supply chain vulnerabilities to preserve production certainty and stability.*
