The NFL’s Most Valuable Player award is typically a quarterback’s domain, and the 2023 season is no different. Despite standout performances from non-quarterbacks, the MVP race has narrowed to two leading contenders: Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens. While Allen currently holds a slight edge in the betting odds, the race remains remarkably close, raising the intriguing possibility of a shared MVP award, a rare occurrence in NFL history.
Historically, only two MVP awards have been split between two players: Brett Favre and Barry Sanders in 1997, and Peyton Manning and Steve McNair in 2003. The 2003 scenario offers a compelling comparison to the current Allen-Jackson dynamic. While Manning statistically outperformed McNair, both quarterbacks had compelling narratives. Manning was coming off prior MVP contention and was having a career year, while McNair, despite playing fewer games, led his team to a strong record and showcased his dual-threat capabilities. The voters, influenced by these compelling storylines, ultimately decided to honor both players.
Similarly, both Allen and Jackson have compelling narratives this season. Allen has guided the Bills through a season that defied preseason expectations, showcasing improved decision-making and reduced interceptions while maintaining his high-level production. He represents a new wave of AFC quarterbacks leading top-tier teams. Jackson, on the other hand, is vying for his third MVP award, a feat achieved by only a handful of NFL legends. A third MVP would solidify his place among the league’s all-time greats and cement his legacy at a remarkably young age.
Statistically, the two quarterbacks present compelling cases. Jackson holds the edge in most major passing categories, including passing yards, completion percentage, touchdowns, and passer rating. Furthermore, his Ravens secured a head-to-head victory against the Bills earlier in the season. However, Allen’s performance must be viewed in the context of his team’s circumstances. The Bills entered the season having lost their top receiver, forcing Allen to elevate the performance of those around him. His ability to lead his team to success despite these challenges further strengthens his MVP candidacy.
The possibility of a split MVP award hinges on several factors. First, the final week of the regular season could influence voter perceptions. Significant performances from either quarterback could sway the vote in their favor. However, with both teams’ playoff seeding largely settled, it is unlikely either player will see substantial playing time in their final game, solidifying their current statistical output. Second, voter preference for rewarding a compelling narrative could play a crucial role. Will voters opt for Allen’s overcoming adversity story or Jackson’s pursuit of historical greatness?
The 2003 precedent suggests that voters are willing to recognize two exceptional players when compelling narratives and near-equal statistical performances exist. Both Allen and Jackson fit this mold. Allen’s leadership of a potentially underestimated Bills team and his demonstrably improved ball security present a strong case. Simultaneously, Jackson’s pursuit of a rare third MVP award, coupled with his dominant statistical performance, makes him an equally deserving candidate.
Examining their final projected statistics provides a clearer picture of their near-identical performance levels. Allen is projected to finish the season with 3,549 passing yards, a 63.8% completion percentage, 26 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 514 rushing yards, and 11 rushing touchdowns. Jackson, on the other hand, is projected to finish with 3,955 passing yards, a 67.9% completion percentage, 39 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 852 rushing yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns. While Jackson holds the edge in passing yards and touchdowns, Allen’s significantly higher rushing touchdowns and lower interception count bolster his argument.
Ultimately, the decision rests with the voters. Will they choose to reward one quarterback over the other, or will they acknowledge the remarkable achievements of both by awarding a shared MVP? The historical precedent of split awards and the compelling storylines of both Allen and Jackson suggest that a shared MVP is a distinct possibility, marking a unique chapter in NFL history and recognizing two of the league’s brightest stars. The close MVP race mirrors the competitive landscape of the NFL itself, highlighting the exceptional talent and compelling narratives that define the modern game. The final decision, regardless of the outcome, will undoubtedly spark debate and further cement the legacies of both quarterbacks.
