The Denver Nuggets face a significant challenge regarding their three-point shooting, a weakness starkly highlighted during a recent two-game road trip where they suffered substantial losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Washington Wizards. In these games, the disparity in three-point production was alarming, with the Nuggets making 27 fewer threes on 40 fewer attempts than their opponents, resulting in an 81-point deficit from beyond the arc. While this could be dismissed as an anomaly, it unfortunately reflects a broader, season-long trend for Denver, raising concerns about their ability to contend for another championship.
The Nuggets’ three-point attempt frequency is the lowest in the NBA, sitting at a mere 30.7%, drastically trailing the league-leading Boston Celtics at 52.7%. This translates to a league-low 672 three-point attempts made by Denver through 22 games, compared to 855 attempts allowed to their opponents, resulting in the worst differential in the league. Consequently, the Nuggets have been outscored by a total of 153 points on three-pointers this season, an average of almost 7 points per game. This deficiency highlights the crucial importance of three-pointers in the modern NBA, where their mathematical advantage has revolutionized offensive strategies.
The evolution of basketball analytics has emphasized the value of shots based on their location. While close-range shots at the rim remain the most efficient, three-pointers, especially corner threes, offer the next best return on investment. The league-wide trend has seen a decline in mid-range shots in favor of three-point attempts, a shift the Nuggets have yet to fully embrace. While they excel in shots at the rim, leading the league with a 39.4% frequency, their reliance on two-point shots, even with Nikola Jokic’s exceptional mid-range proficiency, puts them at a disadvantage against teams capitalizing on the higher point potential of threes.
Despite their championship win in 2023, Denver’s 30.0 three-point attempts per game during that playoff run was already the lowest among title winners in the past decade. Their success was partly attributed to Jokic’s mid-range mastery and his effective two-man game with Jamal Murray. However, Murray’s struggles this season have diminished the potency of this dynamic, and opposing defenses have become more adept at neutralizing it. Replicating their championship run with such a low three-point rate seems improbable, given the league’s increasing emphasis on three-point shooting.
Increasing their three-point attempts would not only improve Denver’s offensive efficiency but also enhance their floor spacing, creating more opportunities for their signature Jokic-Murray pick-and-rolls. While there are other paths to victory, as the Nuggets demonstrated last year, ignoring the mathematical advantage of three-pointers in the current NBA landscape could prove detrimental to their championship aspirations. They risk facing an insurmountable scoring deficit in the playoffs if they fail to adapt to the modern game’s reliance on the three-point shot.
To remain competitive, the Nuggets must find a way to increase their three-point attempt frequency to at least a league-average level. While they have strengths in other areas, such as their dominance at the rim and Jokic’s mid-range prowess, clinging to a low three-point volume in today’s NBA is a risky strategy. Their previous championship win, achieved despite their low three-point rate, appears more like an exception than a sustainable model. Adapting to the league’s evolving offensive landscape by embracing the three-pointer will be crucial for the Nuggets to maximize their chances of another deep playoff run and a potential repeat championship. The math is clear: three points are more than two, and ignoring that fundamental principle could cost them dearly in the long run.
