The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen a significant shift in battlefield tactics, primarily driven by the pervasive presence of small, inexpensive, yet highly effective explosive drones. These drones, readily available and easily deployable, have turned large-scale armored assaults into suicide missions for Russian forces along the extensive 800-mile front line. Russian attempts to advance with columns of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles routinely end in devastating losses, captured on film by Ukrainian drones and broadcast as stark reminders of the futility of such tactics. The effectiveness of these drone attacks has forced a tactical reassessment by Russian commanders, prompting a shift towards infantry-centric assaults.
This new approach involves abandoning the traditional reliance on armored vehicles and instead deploying infantry units to advance slowly and methodically, supported by artillery fire and reconnaissance drones. This shift aims to minimize equipment losses and mitigate the vulnerability of armored columns to drone strikes. While slower and arguably more arduous, this infantry-focused strategy presents a smaller and more dispersed target, making it harder for Ukrainian drones to inflict significant casualties. The effectiveness of this approach is evident in the slow but steady gains made by Russian forces in certain areas, particularly south of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast and along the edges of the salient in Kursk Oblast.
Despite the demonstrated efficacy of the infantry-first approach, some Russian commanders persist in launching conventional armored assaults, seemingly clinging to outdated tactics despite the predictable and disastrous outcomes. These ill-fated attempts, described by one Russian military blogger as “suicidal runs” and “banzai attacks,” result in heavy losses of equipment and personnel without achieving any strategic gains. This persistence in employing failed tactics underscores a disconnect between battlefield realities and the decision-making processes within the Russian military hierarchy.
The Russian shift to infantry assaults presents a significant challenge for Ukrainian forces, requiring a corresponding increase in their own infantry strength to effectively counter these advances. However, Ukraine is grappling with a growing manpower shortage, a critical vulnerability that has been exacerbated by the prolonged nature of the conflict. This shortage stems from a pre-war underestimation of the potential for large-scale conflict and a reluctance to implement decisive mobilization measures. The Ukrainian leadership, it has been argued, delayed crucial recruitment decisions in an attempt to balance public opinion with the military’s escalating needs, ultimately contributing to the current manpower deficit.
The Ukrainian military’s struggle to replenish its ranks has led to desperate measures, including the redeployment of specialists from support units to front-line combat roles. This practice, while addressing the immediate need for infantry, weakens critical support functions such as mortar crews, transport, and, ironically, drone operations. The very drone units that have been instrumental in forcing the Russians to adopt infantry tactics are now being depleted to provide the infantry needed to counter those same tactics. This creates a dangerous feedback loop, potentially undermining the very advantage that Ukraine holds in the drone domain.
The situation presents a complex dilemma for Ukrainian commanders. Balancing the immediate need for infantry with the long-term strategic importance of maintaining a robust drone capability is crucial. If too many drone operators are reassigned to infantry roles, it could inadvertently create an opening for the Russians to resume their armored assaults with less risk. This underscores the critical need for a sustainable and effective mobilization strategy to address the manpower shortage without compromising Ukraine’s critical military capabilities, particularly in the vital area of drone warfare. The outcome of this conflict may well hinge on Ukraine’s ability to effectively manage this delicate balance.
