The recent drone attack on Millerovo air base in Russia’s Rostov Oblast underscores a strategic shift in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. While the specific targets of the attack remain uncertain, the broader objective is clear: to disrupt Russian operations, escalate the cost of war, and instill a sense of vulnerability deep within Russian territory. This approach represents a departure from traditional military tactics, focusing less on destroying individual assets and more on the cumulative effect of persistent pressure and disruption.
Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities have evolved significantly throughout the conflict, encompassing a diverse arsenal ranging from U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to French and British-made cruise missiles like SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow, as well as a growing inventory of indigenously produced drones, rockets, and cruise missiles. This expanding reach and firepower have forced the Russian military into a difficult dilemma: either risk valuable assets near the front lines or relocate them farther from the battlefield, sacrificing operational efficiency.
The Russian response to the increasing threat of Ukrainian deep strikes has been to withdraw significant military assets, including aircraft, from forward operating bases. Previously, as many as 305 Russian warplanes were stationed within 100 miles of the front line. However, the arrival of ATACMS, with their ability to disperse hundreds of submunitions across a wide area, prompted a panicked retreat, pushing many of these aircraft back beyond the ATACMS’ 200-mile range. Millerovo air base, once teeming with Su-25s and Su-30s, is now sparsely populated, a testament to the effectiveness of Ukraine’s strategy.
This relocation, while preserving aircraft, introduces a significant logistical challenge for the Russian air force. Operating from bases 400 miles from the front lines significantly reduces the frequency and duration of sorties. The increased travel time limits the number of missions flown per week and restricts the time aircraft can spend over the battlefield. This operational constraint undermines the effectiveness of the Russian air force, even as it preserves its physical assets.
Ukraine’s strategy is predicated on the understanding that imposing costs, both tangible and intangible, on the Russian military is crucial for achieving its objectives. The disruption of operations, the constant threat of attack, and the psychological impact of vulnerability within Russian territory all contribute to a growing sense of unease and pressure on the Russian side. The increasing range and frequency of Ukrainian attacks amplify this effect, forcing the Russians into a continuous cycle of adaptation and retreat.
Ukraine’s evolving deep-strike capabilities represent a calculated approach to asymmetric warfare. By targeting logistical hubs, air bases, and other critical infrastructure deep within Russian territory, Ukraine aims to disrupt the Russian war machine, degrade its operational effectiveness, and amplify the psychological pressure on the Russian military and populace. The success of this strategy hinges on the continued expansion of Ukraine’s arsenal and its ability to penetrate ever deeper into Russian territory, further exacerbating the cost-distance dilemma for the Russian military. This approach, while not focused on immediate and decisive victories in traditional terms, aims to steadily erode Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort, chipping away at its capacity to wage war effectively over the long term.
