The ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine centers around Russia’s ambition to capture the entirety of the Donbas region, encompassing Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. While Luhansk succumbed early in the war, Donetsk has proven a more formidable challenge. After 34 months of fighting, Russian forces control only two-thirds of Donetsk, and their prospects for complete occupation are diminishing. Two primary obstacles stand in their way: the heavily fortified Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk and a string of fortified cities northeast of Pokrovsk, stretching from Kostyantynivka to Sloviansk. Ukrainian defense analysts believe that the Russians will not be able to breach this “belt of fortresses” and fully occupy Donetsk Oblast by the end of the year.
Despite these challenges, Russian forces have made incremental gains. The 90th Guards Tank Division recently pushed through the village of Zhovte to Novopushtynka, creating a salient in Ukrainian lines just five miles south of Pokrovsk. This advance suggests a strategy of encirclement rather than direct assault on Pokrovsk. The likely next steps for Russian forces involve widening the salient by capturing Novotroitske and Ukrainka. This expansion would not only tighten the noose around Pokrovsk but also threaten Ukrainian supply lines to Zorya and Sontsivka further south. The advancing Russian forces aim to create a pincer movement, simultaneously encircling Pokrovsk from the south and southern Donetsk from the north.
However, Russia’s capacity to execute this maneuver is questionable. Their most effective troops and equipment, along with North Korean reinforcements, are heavily engaged in countering a Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, resulting in substantial casualties. This leaves limited reserves for the Pokrovsk offensive. The Russian command has had to maintain troop density in the Pokrovsk area primarily through regrouping existing forces, rather than deploying fresh reinforcements. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk is predicted to be the culmination of Russia’s offensive operations for 2024, and it will test their ability to overcome these resource constraints.
The Russians face this crucial battle from a weakened position. Their monthly troop losses significantly surpass their recruitment rate, and their stocks of modern military hardware are dwindling. This has led to an increasing reliance on improvised vehicles like pickup trucks and vans for assaults. Furthermore, the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has left thousands of Russian troops and a substantial amount of equipment stranded, compounding Putin’s challenges at a time when he needs to project strength and confidence to his forces.
The evolving political landscape adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The upcoming US presidential transition under Donald Trump could lead to significant changes in US aid to Ukraine, potentially diminishing crucial support. Elections in Germany and potential government changes in France further contribute to an uncertain political climate. These shifts could either benefit or harm Ukraine, and the unpredictability is palpable in both Moscow and Kyiv.
The contrasting objectives of the two sides further highlight the precarious nature of the conflict. Russia is striving to maintain a costly offensive, with its goals continually receding into the future. Ukraine, on the other hand, is focused on survival, aiming to withstand the onslaught while Russia expends its resources. The battle for Pokrovsk will likely become a pivotal moment in this protracted war, testing Russia’s capacity to achieve its objectives and Ukraine’s resilience in the face of a determined adversary. The outcome hinges on a complex interplay of military strength, resource availability, and the ever-shifting political currents. Russia’s depleted forces and reliance on regrouping rather than reinforcements paint a picture of a stretched military capacity. The loss of resources and personnel in Syria further complicates their situation. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s focus on defense and the potential for shifting international support leave room for continued resistance. The battle for Pokrovsk will likely reveal the true extent of Russia’s capabilities and determine the course of the conflict in the near future.
