The first encounter between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk in May 2024 delivered a compelling heavyweight clash, culminating in a split decision victory for Usyk. This triumph cemented Usyk’s status as the first undisputed heavyweight champion since Lennox Lewis in 1999. The rematch, scheduled for December 21st at Riyadh’s Kingdom Arena, the same venue as their initial bout, will not be for the undisputed title. This analysis revisits the first fight, examines the current betting odds, and offers predictions for the highly anticipated rematch.
The initial rounds of the first fight saw both fighters attempting to establish their respective strategies. Fury leveraged his size advantage and a persistent jab to maintain distance, while Usyk relied on speed, volume, and movement to corner Fury and unleash combinations. Usyk’s tactics proved effective in the early rounds, partially aided by Fury’s apparent focus on engaging with the crowd. As the fight progressed, Fury increased his output and asserted himself, utilizing his jab to disrupt Usyk’s power shots and keeping the fight away from the ropes. Although Usyk continued to land body blows, Fury’s control was evident in the middle rounds.
A shift in momentum occurred in the eighth round, with Usyk adopting a more aggressive approach, relentlessly pursuing Fury and landing impactful blows. This aggression culminated in a near-knockdown in the ninth round, where Fury appeared visibly shaken and reliant on the ropes for support. While referee Mark Nelson administered a standing eight-count, controversy arose regarding the decision not to stop the fight. Some observers, including David Haye, argued that the referee should have intervened, suggesting a potential bias in favor of Fury.
Despite the near-knockdown, Usyk maintained his offensive pressure throughout the remaining rounds, securing the victory via split decision with scorecards of 115-112, 114-113 for Usyk, and 114-113 for Fury. CompuBox statistics further highlighted the fight dynamics, revealing Usyk’s higher connect percentage and effective punching. The upcoming rematch sees a shift in betting odds, with Usyk now the favorite at -150 compared to Fury’s underdog status at +120, a reversal from the first fight where Fury was slightly favored.
For the rematch, Fury must prioritize focus and avoid distractions, replicating the disciplined approach he displayed in the middle rounds of their first encounter. Utilizing his jab, maintaining distance, and targeting Usyk’s body, a known vulnerability, are crucial for Fury’s success. However, concerns remain regarding Fury’s preparation and mindset. His dismissal of any mistakes in the first fight and his assertion that Usyk simply “caught him” raise doubts about his ability to adapt and implement a revised strategy.
Usyk enters the rematch with a proven strategy, emphasizing calculated attacks and efficient movement. Building upon his performance in the first fight, Usyk should maintain his focus on picking his moments to strike while enhancing his lateral movement to minimize Fury’s opportunities for powerful uppercuts. The psychological advantage gained from defeating a previously undefeated Fury is also a significant factor for Usyk.
The rematch is scheduled for December 21st, with the main event expected around 6:00 p.m. ET, available on DAZN Pay-Per-View. The undercard features several intriguing matchups, including Bohachuk vs. Davis, Itauma vs. McKean, Fisher vs. Allen, McCann vs. McGrail, and Lowe vs. McGregor. Fight week activities include grand arrivals, media workouts, press conferences, and the weigh-in, leading up to the highly anticipated clash.
While the first fight was undoubtedly close, a retrospective analysis suggests Usyk was the more deserving victor. Fury’s potential for improvement in the rematch is undeniable, but his apparent complacency regarding the first fight’s outcome raises doubts about his strategic adjustments. Although a Fury victory wouldn’t be a complete shock, Usyk’s strategic acumen, combined with the psychological boost from the first fight, makes him the favored pick for the rematch. My prediction is a decision victory for Oleksandr Usyk.
