The Oklahoma City Thunder’s journey in the 2024-25 NBA season presents a fascinating case study in the importance of three-point shooting in the modern game. Despite a scorching 35-7 start fueled by MVP-caliber performances from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and historically dominant defense, a discernible decline in three-point shooting efficiency compared to the previous season has emerged as a potential area of concern. While the Thunder’s overall talent and defensive prowess have allowed them to weather this shooting slump in many regular season games, the playoffs present a different challenge, demanding a higher level of offensive consistency to compete against the league’s elite.
The crux of the issue lies in a significant drop in accuracy from above-the-break three-point attempts. In 2023-24, the Thunder led the league in three-point percentage, hitting 38.9% of their attempts, while ranking 16th in volume with 34.2 attempts per game. This season, the volume has increased to 38.6 attempts per game (10th in the league), but the accuracy has plummeted to 35.8%, placing them 17th in the league. This discrepancy is largely attributable to struggles from above the break, where their efficiency has fallen from a league-leading 38.0% to a below-average 34.4%. While corner three efficiency has remained relatively consistent, the increased volume of above-the-break attempts has driven the overall decline in three-point percentage. This shift in shot distribution and the resulting drop in efficiency warrant closer examination.
Several factors contribute to fluctuating three-point shooting percentages. While shot location is a significant element, as highlighted by the Thunder’s struggles above the break, other variables play crucial roles. Shot quality, which considers the degree of difficulty based on defender proximity and other contextual factors, is paramount. The distance of attempts also influences accuracy; longer threes are inherently more challenging. Furthermore, the distribution of shots among players, the variety of offensive actions generating three-point opportunities, and the frequency of attempts all contribute to a team’s overall three-point shooting performance. Addressing these multifaceted aspects is crucial for the Thunder to regain their shooting prowess.
Analyzing individual player performance provides further insight into the Thunder’s collective shooting decline. Nearly all of the returning core players from the 2023-24 season have experienced a drop in three-point percentage. This individual regression, coupled with the acquisition of Alex Caruso, who has also seen a significant dip in his three-point shooting, has compounded the team’s overall struggles from beyond the arc. While some fluctuation is expected, the widespread decline among key players underscores the need for improvement if the Thunder aim to contend for a championship.
The regular season has, to an extent, masked the true impact of the Thunder’s three-point shooting woes. Their exceptional defense and Gilgeous-Alexander’s brilliance have allowed them to overcome poor shooting nights, as evidenced by their 8-0 record in games where they make ten or fewer threes. However, the playoffs expose vulnerabilities, and the Thunder’s 35.6% three-point shooting in last year’s postseason underscores the need for improvement. Against elite competition, relying solely on defense and individual brilliance becomes less sustainable, highlighting the critical importance of consistent perimeter shooting.
The Thunder’s championship aspirations hinge on their ability to rectify their three-point shooting inconsistencies. While their dominant defense and star power provide a strong foundation, playoff success demands a multi-faceted offensive attack. Elevating their three-point efficiency, particularly from above the break, will unlock their full offensive potential. Combining improved shooting with their already elite defense would position the Thunder as a formidable contender, capable of competing with the league’s best. Their ability to address this key area will ultimately determine their championship fate.
Despite the challenges posed by their inconsistent three-point shooting, the Thunder’s strong start and underlying talent offer reasons for optimism. They possess a clear path to improvement, focusing on shot selection, shot quality, and player development. By addressing these areas, they can reclaim their status as one of the league’s premier three-point shooting teams. Coupled with their elite defense, this improvement would transform them into a true championship contender, capable of achieving their ultimate goal. The Thunder’s journey this season will be defined by their ability to address this critical area and unlock their full potential.
