The 2024 NFL season began with discussions surrounding the escalating prowess of kickers, prompting the question of whether they had become “too good.” This discourse echoes the concerns of 2015, which led the NFL to move the extra point back by two yards, a move intended to reintroduce a degree of challenge to what had become an almost automatic point. Prior to this adjustment, extra point percentages had climbed steadily, reaching 99.3% in 2015 from 98.7% in 2005. The rule change immediately impacted success rates, dropping the percentage to 94.2% in its first year and contributing to a simultaneous increase in two-point conversion attempts. However, the core of the kicker conversation shifted from extra points and short field goals to the expanding range of field goal attempts, particularly those originating from beyond the 50-yard line.
The ability to reliably convert these longer field goals transformed from a luxury into a strategic advantage. Teams with strong-legged kickers gained the potential to score three points from midfield, significantly impacting field position strategy and game management. Between 2005 and 2014, a period when extra points were virtually guaranteed and the overall league field goal percentage hovered around 84%, approximately 131 fifty-plus yard field goal attempts were made per season, with a success rate of 58.2%. This period saw only five kickers – Janikowski, Brown, Crosby, Sawson, and Hanson – consistently attempt these long-range kicks, each accumulating 40 or more attempts over their lengthy careers, reflecting the trust placed in their established abilities.
The landscape changed dramatically between 2015 and 2019. Fifty-plus yard attempts became more commonplace, increasing to an average of 190 per season, and the success rate improved to 62.8%. This trend continued to accelerate in subsequent years. From 2020 to 2024, both the number of attempts and the success rate steadily climbed: 63.1% in 2020, 66.3% in 2021, 68.8% in 2022, 68.7% in 2023, and peaking at 69.9% in 2024. This dramatic increase in long-range attempts and accuracy, accompanied by the first 18-week season in 2020, reshaped the role of the kicker and the dynamics of the game. The increase in attempts reflects a growing confidence in long-range kicking, transforming it from a last resort into a viable offensive weapon.
The 2024 season, however, revealed a potential downside to this emphasis on distance. While ten kickers attempted ten or more long-range field goals, with most exceeding the league average, even the most accomplished kickers weren’t immune to struggles. Justin Tucker, historically the most accurate kicker in NFL history, experienced his worst season, finishing with a 73.3% field goal percentage. His difficulties stemmed primarily from long-range attempts, where he converted only 11 of 19 attempts from 40+ yards. While he maintained perfection on shorter, more conventional field goals and extra point opportunities (excluding two missed extra points), his long-distance struggles, potentially exacerbated by playing in the challenging conditions of the NFL North, underscored the inherent variability of long-range kicking.
Tucker’s experience highlights a broader league-wide trend: the largest single-season drop in overall field goal percentage since 2014. This decline is not solely attributed to the increased number of long-range attempts. The changing profile of kickers entering the league also plays a significant role. Teams are prioritizing raw power and distance over accuracy and consistency, mirroring a trend seen in Major League Baseball where pitching velocity often trumps control. This preference for distance is evident in the attention given to kickers like Brandon Aubrey of the Dallas Cowboys, whose ability to boot 70+ yard field goals in practice generates buzz despite his limited NFL experience. Similarly, the higher draft capital invested in kickers like Evan McPherson and Jake Moody suggests a shift in valuation, placing a premium on potential long-range prowess.
The evolving role of the kicker presents a strategic dilemma for NFL teams. While the ability to score from midfield offers a distinct advantage, the reliability of kickers in high-pressure situations remains crucial. The legacies of kickers like Stephen Gostkowski and Adam Vinatieri, known for their clutch performances in critical moments, underscore the value of consistency, particularly in close games and playoff scenarios. As the 2024-25 NFL playoffs unfold, the balance between distance and accuracy will be put to the test, determining which teams benefit from their long-range kicking strategies and which ones suffer the consequences of inconsistency. The outcome of these games may well hinge on the performance of kickers, leaving fans anxiously watching as the kicking units take the field in crucial moments.
