Moana 2 Continues Box Office Domination, Heading for Another Record Weekend
Disney’s animated sequel, Moana 2, is riding a wave of success, poised to make another splash at the box office in its second weekend. Having already amassed nearly $455 million globally, the film is projected to add another $120-130 million domestically, solidifying its position as a record-breaking blockbuster. Initial estimates suggest a total global cume of at least $570 million by Sunday, but with the film consistently exceeding expectations, a final figure closer to $575-580 million, or even higher, appears increasingly likely. This success continues a trend of shattering box office records, and with the holiday season approaching, Moana 2 seems destined to continue its reign.
Moana 2 and Wicked Set to Eclipse Frozen 2’s December Record
One of the most remarkable feats Moana 2 is about to achieve is surpassing Frozen 2’s post-Thanksgiving weekend record. Frozen 2, released in 2019, held the record for the highest domestic gross during the first weekend of December with $35 million. Moana 2 is projected to nearly double that figure, with an estimated $60 million weekend gross. Impressively, "Wicked," the film adaptation of the popular Broadway musical, is also on track to surpass Frozen 2’s previous record. With projections suggesting a $40 million domestic haul, "Wicked" will claim the second-highest gross for this period, trailing only the phenomenal performance of Moana 2. This emphasizes the overall strength of the current box office landscape.
Moana 2’s Second Weekend Performance Breakdown and Global Projections
While "Wicked" briefly overtook Moana 2 in mid-week domestic box office rankings, Moana 2 is expected to reclaim the top spot over the weekend. "Wicked," however, is still anticipated to have a strong showing, likely reaching a global total of at least $420 million. Moana 2’s international performance is expected to be robust, with projected earnings similar to its domestic figures. The film’s opening in Japan and Hong Kong this weekend will further contribute to its global success, potentially adding another $10-15 million to its overall tally. A bullish prediction puts Moana 2’s weekend earnings at $60 million domestically, $65 million internationally (excluding Japan and Hong Kong), and an additional $10-15 million from the new markets, resulting in a total of $590 million. Even conservative estimates remain optimistic, with a minimum of $57 million domestically and $65 million internationally, leading to a $575 million total. This suggests a strong likelihood of exceeding even the most optimistic forecasts.
The Path to $1 Billion: Potential Challenges and Competition
Despite its record-breaking opening and continued dominance, Moana 2 faces challenges in its quest to surpass Inside Out 2’s impressive $1.698 billion global gross. While repeat viewership remains strong, it seems to be tapering off faster than it did for Inside Out 2, particularly among adult audiences in North America. The upcoming release of films like "The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim" and "Kraven the Hunter," while not major threats, will introduce some competition. More significant challenges will emerge with the December 20th release of "Sonic the Hedgehog 3" and "Mufasa: The Lion King," which are expected to significantly impact family entertainment viewership. While the overall holiday season may boost box office performance for family films, Moana 2 and Wicked are unlikely to remain in the top five by the end of the Christmas weekend.
Moana 2’s Position within the 2024 Box Office Landscape
Unless Moana 2 experiences significant overperformance in both domestic and international markets, reaching $600+ million by Sunday, it likely won’t surpass Inside Out 2 as the highest-grossing film of 2024 or claim the title of the biggest animated feature film of all time. Its final cume is projected to fall somewhere around the performance of films like "Deadpool & Wolverine," "Sonic the Hedgehog 3," and "Mufasa: The Lion King," depending on their eventual box office totals. This highlights a dominant year for Disney, with its films occupying the top spots of the 2024 box office. The competition primarily consists of internal Disney productions, including Inside Out 2 (Pixar), Deadpool & Wolverine (Marvel), Moana 2 (Disney Animation), and Mufasa: The Lion King. "Sonic the Hedgehog 3" appears to be the only non-Disney contender vying for a spot in the billion-dollar club.
The Continuing Race for Box Office Supremacy
Despite these projections, Moana 2 remains a strong contender for the title of 2024’s biggest blockbuster and retains a realistic chance of achieving $1 billion in global ticket sales. Its performance in the Japanese and Hong Kong markets will be critical, and there’s always the potential for unexpected surges in viewership. The upcoming weeks promise an exciting box office race, and the final outcome remains uncertain. The holiday season will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in determining which films ultimately emerge victorious in this competitive landscape.
