The Russian artillery corps, a cornerstone of its military strategy in Ukraine, has suffered significant attrition since the invasion began in February 2022. Of the approximately 2,000 tracked howitzers deployed at the start of the conflict, at least 800 have been destroyed by Ukrainian forces. This substantial loss is compounded by a critical shortage of replacement gun barrels, further diminishing the operational capacity of the remaining artillery pieces. Domestic production of new howitzers has failed to keep pace with the demands of the ongoing war, forcing the Russian military to delve into its Cold War-era stockpiles. These reserves, once vast, are now estimated to have dwindled by half as engineers scavenge for usable components amidst deteriorating and rusted equipment.
This dwindling artillery capacity has driven Russia to seek external support, specifically from North Korea. The emergence of North Korean-made M1989 self-propelled howitzers on Russian rail lines marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the conflict. This reliance on North Korean weaponry underscores the increasing vulnerability of the Russian military and its growing dependence on foreign arms suppliers. Pyongyang has become a vital source of artillery ammunition, initially providing rounds compatible with existing Russian calibers. This addressed the immediate capacity limitations of Russian production, ensuring a steady supply of ammunition for the intense artillery barrages that characterize the conflict.
The introduction of the M1989 howitzer, however, represents a deeper level of dependence. This 170-millimeter howitzer, unique to North Korea, introduces a new caliber into the Russian arsenal, distinct from the standard 122-millimeter and 152-millimeter rounds. This reliance on a unique weapon system effectively ties the Russian artillery corps to North Korean production, potentially creating a strategic vulnerability. While Iran also possesses the M1989, the primary source of both the howitzer and its specialized ammunition appears to be North Korea, solidifying Pyongyang’s leverage in this burgeoning arms relationship.
The exchange between Russia and North Korea extends beyond mere artillery pieces and ammunition. Initial reports indicated that North Korea supplied millions of artillery shells to Russia, raising questions about the nature of the compensation. Recent intelligence reveals a potentially alarming quid pro quo: the transfer of advanced military technology, including missile and submarine technology, from Russia to North Korea. This exchange significantly benefits North Korea, potentially accelerating its development of nuclear-capable submarines equipped with intercontinental ballistic missiles. For Russia, this represents a desperate measure to maintain its artillery capabilities, even at the cost of potentially bolstering a nuclear-armed state.
The implications of this asymmetrical exchange are far-reaching. While Russia gains a temporary reprieve for its depleted artillery, it simultaneously empowers North Korea with potentially game-changing military technology. This lopsided trade highlights the precarious position of the Russian military, forced to make difficult choices to sustain its war effort. The reliance on North Korean weaponry creates a strategic dependency, granting Pyongyang considerable leverage over Moscow. Should the relationship sour, North Korea could effectively cripple a significant portion of Russia’s artillery power.
The evolving relationship between Russia and North Korea underscores the changing landscape of the conflict in Ukraine. Russia’s dwindling artillery capacity, coupled with production shortfalls and the depletion of Cold War reserves, has forced it to seek external support. The emergence of North Korean howitzers and ammunition represents not merely a tactical acquisition but a strategic shift with potentially long-term consequences. The transfer of advanced military technology to North Korea in exchange for artillery support raises serious concerns about regional stability and the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology. This increasingly intertwined relationship between Russia and North Korea has the potential to reshape the balance of power in the region and beyond, with unpredictable and potentially dangerous outcomes.
