UFC 311, the inaugural pay-per-view event of the 2025 UFC calendar, is set to take place on Saturday, January 18th, at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The fight card is headlined by two highly anticipated title bouts: Islam Makhachev defending his lightweight championship against Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch, and bantamweight titleholder Merab Dvalishvili facing off against Umar Nurmagomedov. Among the exciting clashes on the main card is a lightweight bout between seasoned veterans Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano, a matchup promising fireworks and carrying significant implications for the division’s rankings.
Beneil Dariush, a UFC veteran since 2014, boasts a professional record of 22 wins, 6 losses, and 1 draw. His UFC journey has been a rollercoaster, marked by periods of dominance interspersed with setbacks. He began his UFC career with an impressive first-round submission victory, only to taste defeat in his second fight. Dariush subsequently strung together five consecutive wins, solidifying his presence in the lightweight division. However, inconsistency plagued his career, with alternating winning and losing streaks. A remarkable eight-fight winning streak between 2018 and 2022 catapulted him into title contention, culminating in a decisive victory over Mateusz Gamrot. Unfortunately, back-to-back losses against Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan have derailed his momentum, leaving him eager to reclaim his winning ways at UFC 311.
Renato Moicano, also a seasoned veteran, enters the octagon with a record of 19 wins, 5 losses, and 1 draw. Like Dariush, Moicano’s UFC tenure has been characterized by fluctuating fortunes. After a strong start, he experienced a period of inconsistency, going 5-5 in his next ten fights. However, a recent resurgence has seen him compile a four-fight winning streak, the longest of his UFC career. Notably, Moicano secured his first knockout victory in the UFC in April 2024 against Jalin Turner, followed by a dominant TKO win against Benoît Saint Denis in September 2024, punctuated by a doctor stoppage due to the extensive damage inflicted on Saint Denis’s face. Moicano’s recent success has him riding high, poised to further cement his status as a top contender in the lightweight division.
The betting odds for this clash have seen some movement. Initially, Dariush opened as the underdog at +180, with Moicano favored at -210. However, the odds have shifted, with Dariush now at +140 and Moicano at -160, indicating a tightening of the perceived gap between the two fighters. This shift likely reflects Dariush’s proven skillset and potential, despite his recent losses, as well as some acknowledgment of Moicano’s historically inconsistent performances prior to his current winning streak.
A statistical comparison of the two fighters reveals some interesting insights. Dariush lands slightly fewer significant strikes per minute (3.78) compared to Moicano (4.42), but also absorbs fewer strikes (2.65 vs. 3.60). Moicano boasts a slightly higher striking accuracy (49% vs. 48%) and striking defense (60% vs. 57%). In terms of grappling, Dariush has a slightly higher takedown average (1.90 vs. 1.87), but Moicano boasts a slightly higher takedown accuracy (44% vs. 34%). Dariush possesses a significantly superior takedown defense (80% vs. 72%). These statistics suggest a closely contested matchup, with both fighters possessing distinct strengths and vulnerabilities.
Predicting the outcome of this fight is challenging, given the contrasting trajectories of the two fighters. While Dariush’s recent losses might suggest a decline, his overall skillset and experience cannot be discounted. Moicano, on the other hand, is riding high on confidence, propelled by his impressive winning streak. However, the question remains whether his recent success represents a genuine evolution in his abilities or simply a favorable matchup streak. The consensus leans towards Dariush leveraging his superior technical skills, particularly in grappling, to control the fight and secure a decision victory, snapping his losing streak and reminding the division of his capabilities.
Dan Hooker, a fellow UFC lightweight, offered his perspective on the matchup, firmly backing Dariush. He believes that Moicano’s recent success against grapplers like Benoît Saint Denis, Jalin Turner, and Drew Dober won’t translate against Dariush, whom he considers one of the most technically proficient grapplers in the division. Hooker doubts Moicano’s ability to outgrapple or even outstrike Dariush, predicting that Dariush will control the fight and cruise to victory, reaffirming his position as a top contender.
UFC 311 promises to be an electrifying event, with the Dariush vs. Moicano bout adding an intriguing layer of complexity to an already stacked card. The clash between a seasoned veteran seeking redemption and a surging contender aiming to solidify his status promises a thrilling contest. While Moicano’s momentum cannot be ignored, Dariush’s technical prowess and experience make him a formidable opponent. The fight will ultimately depend on whether Dariush can regain his winning form and neutralize Moicano’s momentum, or if Moicano can continue his impressive run and establish himself as a true force in the lightweight division. The fight is scheduled to take place on the pay-per-view portion of the card, which begins at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV. The preliminary card will air on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET, with the early prelims kicking off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
