The San Francisco Giants’ recent acquisition of shortstop Willy Adames, a seven-year contract worth $182 million, has garnered significant attention, especially in the shadow of Juan Soto’s record-breaking deal. While Adames is undeniably a talented player with a solid track record, the substantial investment by the Giants raises concerns about the long-term value of this contract. Adames, who will be 29 in the 2025 season, represents a less risky investment compared to younger players, and his consistent playing time, barring any significant injuries, is a valuable asset. While $28 million annually is a hefty sum, it is becoming increasingly common for high-performing players, particularly in the current inflated market. Adames’ two-time MVP voting history further justifies the perceived value of such a contract. However, a deeper dive into his player profile reveals potential red flags that warrant a closer examination of the Giants’ decision.
One of the primary concerns revolves around Adames’ defensive capabilities. While he has shown flashes of brilliance in the field, his advanced defensive metrics have fluctuated throughout his career, dipping to average levels in 2024. Early rumors during free agency even suggested his willingness to transition to third base, a position currently occupied by the Giants’ defensive stalwart, Matt Chapman. This indicates that the Giants are unlikely to benefit from elite-level defense at shortstop with Adames, a factor that could impact their overall defensive performance. While his defensive contributions might be satisfactory, they don’t necessarily align with the premium price tag attached to his contract.
The more significant concerns lie in Adames’ offensive approach. He embodies a “power-before-hit” profile, prioritizing power over consistent contact. This approach, while initially impressive, often leads to a sharp decline in performance as players age. Adames’ career .248-.322-.444 slash line with 150 home runs is commendable for a shortstop, but underlying trends suggest potential issues. His strikeout rates have steadily increased, and his reliance on power over contact raises questions about his long-term offensive sustainability.
Adames’ hitting profile relies heavily on launch angle and pull-hitting, both trends that raise red flags for long-term success. His exceptionally high launch angle, coupled with his extreme pull-hitting tendencies, suggests a vulnerability to defensive shifts and adjustments. Such extreme approaches are often unsustainable and can lead to dramatic declines in production as pitchers exploit these tendencies. His tendency to pull ground balls far exceeds his hits to the opposite field, indicating a predictable hitting pattern that opposing defenses can readily exploit.
Further analysis reveals a decline in Adames’ fly ball authority in recent seasons. While his home run totals have remained respectable, they are now driven by the volume of fly balls rather than their quality, a trend that is unlikely to persist. His uppercut swing, contributing to below-average ground ball authority, also poses a challenge for long-term success. Compounding these concerns is the fact that Adames will now play his home games in Oracle Park, a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment that suppresses home runs. This park factor could further diminish his power numbers and overall offensive output.
While Adames’ leadership qualities and contributions to winning teams in Tampa Bay and Milwaukee are undeniable, the Giants’ substantial investment appears to be based more on past performance than future potential. His acquisition by both previous teams was shrewd, as they traded prospects for his anticipated contributions, maximizing value. However, the Giants are paying a premium price for his established performance, a strategy that carries significant risk. While it’s premature to label Adames a potential failure in San Francisco, the structure and length of his contract raise serious concerns about its long-term viability. The combination of his defensive inconsistencies, power-dependent hitting profile, and the transition to a less hitter-friendly ballpark suggests that this contract may not age well for the Giants.
